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DAM_PrimePrevention: DAM Extrem: PrimePrevention - Prediction of marine biological hazards to prevent socio-economic impacts; project: Monitoring, modelling and assessment of extreme weather events on marine biological hazards in the western Baltic Sea

Due to the expected increase in extreme events, the risk of marine biological hazards in German coastal waters will rise. The focus of the project PrimePrevention is to assess and predict the occurrence of cyanobacteria, Vibrio spp. and hypoxia. The project aims go a step ahead in the adapted observation, to analyse already occurred extreme events and to predict the risks of future events. PrimePrevention further aims to support the development of standardised modular measurement systems, which enable an efficient measurement of key parameters and to provide timely access to these data. In addition, past extreme events are analysed to identify cascade effects while models will be used to assess how the biological hazards and linked ecosystem services will change as environmental pressure increase. Finally, together with end user’s potential options for actions to deal with or avoid marine biological hazards will get developed as well as recommendations for action (e.g. with the EU-MSFD).

The IOW work will take place in all 4 work packages across the project. One focus will be the jointly developed smart marine observation systems (WP2.1). For this purpose, an efficient data flow must be designed and the integration into existing observation systems must be ensured. Past extreme events (like hypoxia and cyanobacterial blooms) will be analysed using existing data and a high-resolution model (WP3.1). Next, a sensitivity study will be conducted related to further rising temperatures and their effect on marine biological hazards, what will then get incorporated in the ecosystem service analysis (WP4.1). All work will be carried out in close exchange with end users and help to evaluate the current monitoring and assessment strategies of the EU-MSFD indicators affected by marine biological hazards (see WP1.3). All these results will then be taken up in the framework of WP4.2 and lead to suggestions for improved concepts of measures and avoidance strategies.